Ethereum: Is it Still Following Historical Patterns?

Ethereum’s recent price movements have left traders questioning its trajectory: Will it follow the historical patterns seen in 2016 and 2019, or is a new trend emerging?

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that key ETH/BTC and ETH/USD levels are sending mixed signals, leading traders to wonder what the next move might be.

ETH/BTC Pair Analysis: A Key Indicator

When analyzing Ethereum, it’s crucial to first look at its performance relative to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC).

Recently, the ETH/BTC pair dropped below the 0.04 level, signaling a potential shift in perspective. Historically, after such a breakdown, ETH/BTC tends to reach its bottom within 8-10 weeks. The latest low for ETH/BTC aligns with this timeframe, suggesting that a bottom may be near or has already been established.

However, Cowen warns of conflicting signals. For instance, ETH/BTC historically bottomed out when the Federal Reserve shifted from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), which has yet to occur.

This opens the possibility that ETH/BTC may experience a temporary recovery before dipping to lower levels again ahead of a sustained rally.

ETH/USD: Echoing 2016 and 2019?

Interestingly, despite the uncertainty surrounding the ETH/BTC pair, Cowen's analysis points out that ETH/USD is closely following the patterns seen in 2016 and 2019.

In both 2016 and 2024, the first quarter saw green months, followed by a red April and a recovery in May.

Similarly, both years witnessed red months in June, July, and August, indicating a summer slump.

If history repeats itself, September could close as a green month for ETH, mirroring the patterns of 2016 and 2019.

The larger question is whether the final phase of the 2016 pattern will play out.

In that scenario, ETH saw three consecutive red months (October, November, December) before breaking out in the following year.

Ethereum’s Current Price Movement

As of now, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,673 after posting a strong 10% rally over the last 10 days, breaking its lackluster performance since the August 5 collapse. But will this momentum last?

Investors should keep a close eye on the key resistance level of $2,702 from the September 23 high.

If buyers are unable to break through this level, a price pullback could be on the horizon.

However, with October historically being a positive month, such a retracement could present a buying opportunity and set the stage for a potential retest of the $2,820 level.