Polymarket Payouts May Be Delayed If Fox and NBC Don’t Agree on U.S. Election Winner

Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket users betting on the results may have to wait months for their payouts.

Polymarket Bettors May Wait Months Despite Donald Trump being the anticipated winner, Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, issued a statement warning that payouts for winning bets may take months.

According to Polymarket’s rules for the 2024 presidential race, payouts require one candidate to win the election outright. The issue arises from the fact that determining the final outcome of the U.S. election can take weeks or even months.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares based on an event's anticipated outcome. Users purchase shares depending on which outcome they deem more likely. The price of these shares, or “odds,” fluctuates with demand. If the predicted event occurs, the contract pays out; if it doesn’t, it drops to $0.

Polymarket’s website states that they will not declare a winner before Inauguration Day unless the media reaches a clear consensus on the winner.

“This election market will close once the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all declare the same candidate as the winner. In the unlikely event that they do not, the market will remain open until Inauguration Day,” the statement reads.

Polymarket has also launched a market specifically set to close only after January 20, 2025, the day after the presidential inauguration.

Are the Odds Being Manipulated? In late October, Polymarket acknowledged that a French citizen with "extensive trading experience" invested approximately $28 million in the election market, shifting the odds in Trump’s favor. However, Polymarket found no evidence of market manipulation.

They stated that the trader “took a leading position based on personal views related to the election.” Despite this, political analysts, pollsters, and other prediction market experts still consider the activity potential manipulation.