Trump’s Chances Decline, Bitcoin Drops Below $69,000

Donald Trump's stance on cryptocurrencies has been notably mixed over the years. While he openly criticized them in a 2019 Twitter post, digital assets have now become a central issue in the 2024 election. With the rising importance of these assets, the Republican candidate is considering incorporating Bitcoin (BTC) into government strategy.

According to Polymarket data, Trump’s odds of winning the November 5 election have dropped significantly. This drop in his chances may also contribute to Bitcoin’s price slipping back below $69,000. Over the weekend, nearly $350 million in leveraged positions were liquidated.

Trump’s Winning Odds Drop Significantly The U.S. presidential election is fast approaching, and Bitcoin’s volatility reflects the heightened stakes. While BTC’s price has changed little compared to last Monday, it’s down significantly from the rally at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, the leading cryptocurrency reached a local peak at $73,500 but has since fallen below the $69,000 mark.

The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has taken an unexpected turn. As of October 30, Trump had a 67% chance of winning according to Polymarket, but this figure has since dropped to 57%.

For the cryptocurrency community, Trump would be the preferred choice due to his favorable stance on digital assets. He has indicated that, if elected, he would replace Gary Gensler as SEC chairman, pardon Ross Ulbricht, and establish Bitcoin as a national reserve asset. With Trump’s odds declining, however, the crypto market has also felt the impact of intensifying competition.

Liquidated Leveraged Positions Market turbulence over the weekend has led to significant liquidations of leveraged positions. Nearly $350 million in orders have been closed due to liquidity shortages over the past three days, with $220 million liquidated in the last 24 hours alone.

Data from CoinGlass reveals that $141 million in long and $80 million in short positions were closed, primarily impacting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). According to analytics, November 3 marked the highest liquidation day since October 25. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to hold the $69,000 support level.

Outlook for the Presidential Election Early voting has started in several states, with official results expected around November 7-8. Polling data suggests a close race, with a margin of less than 1% between the two candidates.

AtlasIntel, known for its accurate 2020 forecast, currently predicts 296 electoral votes for Trump and 242 for Harris. Some traders speculate that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin’s price toward $100,000 by year’s end.